DATA LAB · UPDATED EVERY WEEK
What every team “deserves” and where it will finish.
Three readings of the main European leagues (strength also covers Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and the MLS), computed with our models and refreshed every week: how strong each team is, who is getting more (or less) than they “deserve”, and how the season will end.
Updated on –
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How to read the dashboard
Team strength
A 0–100 rating that sums up each team’s level and can be compared across different leagues. It answers questions a league table cannot: how far the Segunda División leader is from a mid-table Premier League side, or whether a champion from Brazil or Mexico plays at the level of a top-flight team in Europe.
Next to the rating you will see how much it has risen or fallen over the last week and the last month, which is what really shows whether a team is on a run or in decline. A high rating measures level of play; it does not guarantee winning the next match.
The “Compare leagues” view puts teams from several competitions on a single scale so the distance between them is clear at a glance. It also includes the top divisions of Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and the USA.
Alebia Meritocracy
A league table reflects results, but a result does not always reflect what happened on the pitch: a last-minute goal or a penalty can decide a match the other team dominated. The Alebia Meritocracy rebuilds the table from the chances each team created and conceded, measured with expected goals (xG), and answers a simple question: what would the league look like if the scoreline always reflected the play?
What matters is the points difference between the real table and the Meritocracy. A team with far more points than it “deserves” has been lucky or is unusually clinical, and may not keep it up. A team with fewer has been punished by chance and has room to recover.
Read it with care: after only a few matchdays the sample is small and differences are exaggerated. It is not a verdict, but a way of looking at results with context.
League forecast
It estimates how the season may end. From the current table, team strength and the remaining fixtures, we simulate the pending matches thousands of times and count how often each team finishes in each position.
The result is probabilities, as percentages: winning the title, reaching the Champions, Europa or Conference League, being promoted directly or via play-offs, or being relegated. Only the zones that exist in each competition are shown. You will also see expected final points and average position.
A probability is not a promise: a 10% chance of relegation means that in 10 out of 100 possible versions of the rest of the season, the team goes down. The figures change every week with the results.
How it works under the hood. We explain the methodology and what to learn from each table in this blog article. Read the article →
Frequently asked questions
It is the probability, from 0 to 1, that a chance ends in a goal depending on where and how it is created. Added up over a match or a season, it shows how many goals a team “deserved” to score or concede from the chances it created or gave away.
It is our alternative table: the standings you would get if every match were decided by expected goals instead of the scoreline. It shows which teams are above or below what they “deserve” from their play.
It can come down to luck, unusually clinical finishing or an especially inspired goalkeeper. After only a few matchdays the gap tends to be exaggerated; it becomes more reliable as the season goes on.
We simulate the rest of the season thousands of times, taking into account team strength, the current table and the remaining fixtures, and count the percentage of simulations in which each team reaches each target.
Every week, usually on Tuesdays, with the matches played up to that point. The date of the last update is shown on the dashboard itself; if a recent matchday is not reflected yet, it has not been included in the update.
The forecast and the Meritocracy cover the first and second divisions of Spain, England, Germany, Italy and France, plus Portugal’s Primeira Liga and the Dutch Eredivisie. Team strength also adds the Brazilian Série A, the Argentine Liga Profesional, Liga MX and the MLS.
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